Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?
ActiveVolume
$15K
Txns
494
Traders
135
Fees
$3
Liquidity
$5,187
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
Volume
$15K
Txns
494
Traders
135
Fees
$3
Liquidity
$5,187
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Trades
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Yes 93%$3.17Mvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Yes 88%$1.84Mvolume
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
No 100%$2.86Mvolume
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
No 100%$641Kvolume
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
No 98%$226Kvolume
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
No 98%$800Kvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | Wojtek | Yes / 0.5¢ | +817.94 | $4.09 | |
| 1d | Jjw | No / 99.3¢ | -41.15 | $40.9 | |
| 1d | deliaszara42646 | No / 99.3¢ | -50.00 | $49.6 | |
| 1d | obamaosama | Yes / 0.5¢ | -909.09 | $4.54 | |
| 1d | rqwrdd | No / 99.3¢ | +1.35 | $1.34 | |
| 1d | Jjw | No / 99.3¢ | -1.35 | $1.34 | |
| 1d | 1694d | No / 99.3¢ | +10.07 | $10 | |
| 1d | Jjw | No / 99.3¢ | -10.07 | $10 | |
| 3d | HerrieDavis | Yes / 0.7¢ | -5.00 | $0.04 | |
| 3d | 54sfds | Yes / 0.7¢ | -6.82 | $0.05 | |
| 3d | Jjw | No / 99.3¢ | -32.42 | $32.2 | |
| 3d | 54sfds | Yes / 0.7¢ | -5.00 | $0.04 | |
| 3d | 0xC4A7523e78D5a904d9f03BebBa723b7A8bF9898A-1773297208920 | No / 99.3¢ | +15.60 | $15.5 | |
| 4d | Jjw | No / 99.4¢ | -5.00 | $4.97 | |
| 4d | Elias.Thornwell | No / 99.4¢ | +5.00 | $4.97 | |
| 4d | elpatrondelaciudad | No / 99.3¢ | -1.04 | $1.03 | |
| 4d | 54sfds | Yes / 0.7¢ | -1.04 | $0.01 | |
| 4d | elpatrondelaciudad | No / 99.5¢ | +1.05 | $1.04 | |
| 4d | Wojtek | Yes / 0.5¢ | +1.05 | $0.01 | |
| 6d | tolledo | Yes / 0.8¢ | +8.06 | $0.06 | |
| 6d | frostyhopper | No / 99.2¢ | +8.06 | $8 | |
| 6d | 0xea6b...04988d | No / 99.2¢ | +5.04 | $5 | |
| 6d | tolledo | Yes / 0.8¢ | +5.04 | $0.04 | |
| 6d | 0xff09...ff25ab | No / 99.2¢ | +1.01 | $1 | |
| 6d | tolledo | Yes / 0.8¢ | +1.01 | $0.01 |
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