Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 40% and 45%?

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory (MoV) for Democrat Adelita Grijalva in the 2025 special election for Arizona's 7th Congressional District to replace former Representative Raúl Grijalva. For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between Grijalva's vote share and the vote share of the runner-up (the candidate with the second-highest number of votes). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If Adelita Grijalva does not receive the most votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official certified statewide results as published by the State of Arizona. If a recount is initiated prior to certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the results are certified. A recount initiated after certification will not affect market resolution.