
Volume
$142K
Txns
1,934
Traders
521
Fees
$0
Ends
Nov 30, 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any named tropical system makes landfall in the contiguous United States as a Category 5 hurricane between June 1 and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If any hurricane makes multiple landfalls in the contiguous United States, each landfall will be considered for the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, hurricane categories are defined by NOAA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), and a hurricane landfall is considered to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL). This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC for whether a system has made landfall in the contiguous United States at a strength of category 5, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6mo | 0x4018...7dd14a | Yes / 0.1¢ | +81.00 | $0.08 | |
| 6mo | i2dt | No / 99.9¢ | +1,148.48 | $1.15K | |
| 6mo | 0xe9b4...42f03a | Yes / 0.1¢ | +168.00 | $0.17 | |
| 6mo | tailevent | Yes / 0.1¢ | +264.58 | $0.26 | |
| 6mo | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No / 99.9¢ | -239.90 | $240 | |
| 6mo | 0x4018...7dd14a | Yes / 0.1¢ | +69.00 | $0.07 | |
| 6mo | daystay | Yes / 0.1¢ | +100.00 | $0.1 | |
| 6mo | 0x161f...28b075 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +98.00 | $0.1 | |
| 6mo | 0xef2a...99bd7e | Yes / 0.1¢ | +128.00 | $0.13 | |
| 6mo | fengyingbidu | Yes / 0.1¢ | -199.98 | $0.2 | |
| 6mo | tailevent | Yes / 0.1¢ | +199.98 | $0.2 | |
| 6mo | tailevent | Yes / 0.1¢ | +114.87 | $0.11 | |
| 6mo | Newbiao | Yes / 0.1¢ | -114.87 | $0.11 | |
| 6mo | Newbiao | Yes / 0.2¢ | -185.12 | $0.37 | |
| 6mo | fengyingbidu | Yes / 0.2¢ | +185.12 | $0.37 | |
| 6mo | NatureExplorer7122 | No / 99.8¢ | +6.85 | $6.84 | |
| 6mo | fengyingbidu | Yes / 0.2¢ | +6.85 | $0.01 | |
| 6mo | Michael5289 | No / 99.6¢ | +5.00 | $4.98 | |
| 6mo | Ant-Fo | Yes / 0.4¢ | +5.00 | $0.02 | |
| 6mo | InfernoBlde311 | No / 99.8¢ | +4.22 | $4.21 | |
| 6mo | fengyingbidu | Yes / 0.2¢ | +4.22 | $0.01 | |
| 6mo | 03St0rmRder22 | No / 99.8¢ | +3.80 | $3.79 | |
| 6mo | fengyingbidu | Yes / 0.2¢ | +3.80 | $0.01 | |
| 6mo | OriKing | No / 99.5¢ | +3.28 | $3.26 | |
| 6mo | Dugong4382 | No / 99.5¢ | -3.28 | $3.26 |
1–25
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
No 70%$335Kvolume
Natural Disaster in 2026?
No 78%$212Kvolume
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
No 90%$98.8Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?
No 69%$3.14Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?
No 92%$1.39Kvolume
Category 5 hurricane hits US before election?
No 100%$120Kvolume