Trump approval >40% on July 1?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is above 40% on July 1, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than 40% for a “Yes” resolution; an approval of 40% rating will not qualify. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for July 1 is not published by July 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET (noon), the next previous datapoint will be used to resolve this market.