
Volume
$50K
Txns
1,146
Traders
274
Fees
$0
Ends
Feb 28, 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI o3-mini model has a higher arena score than all DeepSeek models on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) at any point by February 28, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". All OpenAI o3-mini models will count (i.e. o3-mini and o3-mini-high both count). If any of them is higher than DeepSeek it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Note that the arena score must be higher - if it ties with the best DeepSeek arena score it will not count. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Trades
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Yes 100%$0volume
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December…
Yes 100%$0volume
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December…
No 100%$0volume
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December…
Yes 100%$0volume
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
No 84%$0volume
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Yes 84%$0volume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | Gustav4 | No / 99.9¢ | +50.00 | $50 | |
| 1y | notebookled | Yes / 0.1¢ | +50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | 0x6f7a85Bd0B2986281EFA4ED6F41e364426C6C585-1736833487648 | Yes / 0.2¢ | +35.68 | $0.07 | |
| 1y | notebookled | Yes / 0.1¢ | +50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | Gustav4 | No / 99.9¢ | +1,077.44 | $1.08K | |
| 1y | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | +991.76 | $0.99 | |
| 1y | 0x87677gma | No / 99.8¢ | +118.24 | $118 | |
| 1y | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | +8.24 | $0.01 | |
| 1y | maniputakl | No / 99.7¢ | -10.00 | $9.97 | |
| 1y | daroghi | Yes / 0.2¢ | +100.00 | $0.2 | |
| 1y | 0x3b8f...24d077 | No / 99.0¢ | -20.00 | $19.8 | |
| 1y | Cryptonite101 | No / 99.0¢ | +233.47 | $231 | |
| 1y | Wojtek | Yes / 1.0¢ | +208.47 | $2.08 | |
| 1y | gromozeka-908 | No / 99.0¢ | -5.00 | $4.95 | |
| 1y | Wojtek | Yes / 1.0¢ | +19.77 | $0.2 | |
| 1y | GamerPath | No / 99.0¢ | +19.77 | $19.6 | |
| 1y | GamerPath | No / 98.9¢ | +20.98 | $20.7 | |
| 1y | 0x6f7a85Bd0B2986281EFA4ED6F41e364426C6C585-1736833487648 | Yes / 1.1¢ | +9.35 | $0.1 | |
| 1y | 0x6f7a85Bd0B2986281EFA4ED6F41e364426C6C585-1736833487648 | Yes / 1.1¢ | +11.63 | $0.13 | |
| 1y | 0x6f7a85Bd0B2986281EFA4ED6F41e364426C6C585-1736833487648 | Yes / 1.1¢ | +10.11 | $0.11 | |
| 1y | JelloPix | No / 98.9¢ | +10.11 | $10 | |
| 1y | Tenebrus7 | Yes / 1.0¢ | -499.99 | $5 | |
| 1y | Wojtek | Yes / 1.0¢ | +499.99 | $5 | |
| 1y | chuchuka | No / 99.0¢ | +20.49 | $20.3 | |
| 1y | Wojtek | Yes / 1.0¢ | +20.49 | $0.2 |
1–25