
Volume
$3K
Txns
319
Traders
91
Fees
$2
Liquidity
$898
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns. -Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility -Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank -A U.S. Treasury capital injection -A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs. Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify. If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Trades
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Yes 99%$20.2Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
No 81%$19.8Mvolume
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
No 100%$8.31Mvolume
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
No 100%$10.8Mvolume
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
No 100%$6.63Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
No 56%$4.11Mvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d | 25oodksmsss09 | Yes / 8.0¢ | +22.85 | $1.83 | |
| 2d | 0xb651...662089 | Yes / 7.6¢ | -22.85 | $1.74 | |
| 10d | 0xca76a466F0848444113c51d275789A5a8aafB9c1-1774575960217 | No / 80.2¢ | -3.70 | $2.97 | |
| 10d | 25oodksmsss09 | Yes / 19.0¢ | -3.70 | $0.7 | |
| 20d | Colala | Yes / 13.0¢ | +3.97 | $0.52 | |
| 20d | b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes / 12.4¢ | -3.97 | $0.49 | |
| 21d | Papelazo | Yes / 18.4¢ | +10.89 | $2.08 | |
| 21d | 25oodksmsss09 | Yes / 18.0¢ | -6.88 | $1.24 | |
| 21d | planktonXD | Yes / 19.0¢ | -4.01 | $0.76 | |
| 28d | b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes / 12.4¢ | -9.36 | $1.16 | |
| 28d | 25oodksmsss09 | Yes / 13.0¢ | +9.36 | $1.22 | |
| 29d | grglu | Yes / 18.0¢ | +5.56 | $1.04 | |
| 29d | 25oodksmsss09 | Yes / 18.0¢ | -5.56 | $1 | |
| 1mo | 0xB16B00B5 | No / 94.0¢ | -30.00 | $28.2 | |
| 1mo | Colala | Yes / 5.7¢ | -30.00 | $1.72 | |
| 1mo | planktonXD | Yes / 19.0¢ | -8.84 | $1.68 | |
| 1mo | 0xbb5a...03e940 | No / 80.2¢ | -8.84 | $7.09 | |
| 1mo | planktonXD | Yes / 19.0¢ | -1.38 | $0.26 | |
| 1mo | 0x255e...bffed1 | No / 80.2¢ | -1.38 | $1.11 | |
| 1mo | planktonXD | Yes / 19.0¢ | -1.38 | $0.26 | |
| 1mo | 0x474a...43c816 | No / 80.2¢ | -1.38 | $1.11 | |
| 1mo | Biver52 | Yes / 7.0¢ | +100.00 | $7 | |
| 1mo | 25oodksmsss09 | Yes / 8.0¢ | +13.50 | $1.08 | |
| 1mo | 0xB16B00B5 | No / 94.0¢ | -234.52 | $220 | |
| 1mo | 0xMilly | Yes / 6.1¢ | -358.02 | $21.9 |
1–25