
Volume
$16K
Txns
422
Traders
104
Fees
$0
Ends
Mar 3, 2026
Democratic and Republican Senate Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority. This market will resolve to “Dems” if the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary is greater than the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate Primary. This market will resolve to “GOP” if the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate Primary is greater than the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the margin of victory between the top two candidates in both primaries is exactly equal, or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2mo | OraculumNobius | Yes / 99.9¢ | +11.00 | $11 | |
| 2mo | 1356789 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -11.00 | $11 | |
| 2mo | zabaniya6666 | No / 0.1¢ | +0.60 | $0 | |
| 2mo | 0x405809651DaE4E0556E8F3740B1e16A7DF2D35b5-1768388246454 | No / 0.1¢ | +19.42 | $0.02 | |
| 2mo | OraculumNobius | Yes / 99.9¢ | +20.02 | $20 | |
| 2mo | zabaniya6666 | No / 0.1¢ | +199.40 | $0.2 | |
| 2mo | zabaniya6666 | No / 0.1¢ | +200.00 | $0.2 | |
| 2mo | OraculumNobius | Yes / 99.9¢ | +399.40 | $399 | |
| 2mo | 0xRocket666 | No / 0.1¢ | +200.00 | $0.2 | |
| 2mo | LuckyPierrot | Yes / 99.9¢ | +832.75 | $832 | |
| 2mo | jjzzh | No / 0.1¢ | +5.00 | $0.01 | |
| 2mo | before2027 | No / 0.2¢ | +59.33 | $0.12 | |
| 2mo | before2027 | No / 0.1¢ | +99.94 | $0.1 | |
| 2mo | rikitikitaki | No / 0.1¢ | +5.00 | $0.01 | |
| 2mo | wendypeekaboo | No / 0.1¢ | +100.00 | $0.1 | |
| 2mo | before2027 | No / 0.2¢ | +299.89 | $0.6 | |
| 2mo | before2027 | No / 0.1¢ | +13.59 | $0.01 | |
| 2mo | m0rt | No / 0.1¢ | +50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 2mo | 9fdgkliydu43 | Yes / 95.3¢ | -5.00 | $4.76 | |
| 2mo | FrankyFourFingers | Yes / 95.4¢ | +98.95 | $94.4 | |
| 2mo | 0x105AfC319F035261beFF4CA03a56E5E21A1d7610-1769964436950 | Yes / 95.4¢ | -93.95 | $89.6 | |
| 2mo | BKno95 | Yes / 97.6¢ | +7.00 | $6.83 | |
| 2mo | before2027 | No / 2.4¢ | +7.00 | $0.17 | |
| 3mo | FrankyFourFingers | Yes / 88.0¢ | +80.20 | $70.6 | |
| 3mo | oscarfour | Yes / 88.0¢ | -80.20 | $70.6 |
1–25
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?
Yes 100%$178Kvolume
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 25% and 30%?
Yes 100%$24.7Kvolume
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% or more?
No 99%$53.1Kvolume
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 6% and 9%?
No 100%$18.9Kvolume
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 10% and 15%?
No 100%$15.7Kvolume
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%?
No 100%$12.4Kvolume