Volume
$2K
Txns
156
Traders
37
Fees
$0
Liquidity
$0
Ends
Jul 7, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Trades
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?
No 100%$5.54Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
No 87%$37.1Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Yes 59%$10.1Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
No 54%$4.2Mvolume
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
No 75%$1.65Mvolume
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
No 100%$12.2Mvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10m | sq666 | No / 44.0¢ | -14.11 | $6.21 | |
| 10m | sarevok | No / 44.0¢ | +14.11 | $6.21 | |
| 30m | fresh | No / 47.0¢ | +50.00 | $23.5 | |
| 30m | pbot888 | Yes / 53.0¢ | +50.00 | $26.5 | |
| 30m | pbot888 | Yes / 53.0¢ | +30.00 | $15.9 | |
| 30m | fresh | No / 47.0¢ | +30.00 | $14.1 | |
| 30m | pbot888 | Yes / 53.0¢ | +9.99 | $5.29 | |
| 30m | fresh | No / 47.0¢ | +9.99 | $4.7 | |
| 31m | fresh | No / 47.0¢ | +9.99 | $4.7 | |
| 31m | pbot888 | Yes / 53.0¢ | +9.99 | $5.29 | |
| 47m | sq666 | No / 44.0¢ | +0.12 | $0.05 | |
| 47m | username-already-taken | No / 44.0¢ | -0.12 | $0.05 | |
| 47m | username-already-taken | No / 44.0¢ | -13.99 | $6.16 | |
| 47m | sq666 | No / 44.0¢ | +13.99 | $6.16 | |
| 47m | 0x63e0...094ca5 | Yes / 55.0¢ | -6.01 | $3.31 | |
| 47m | username-already-taken | No / 44.0¢ | +13.99 | $6.16 | |
| 47m | 1PercentBetterT2 | No / 44.3¢ | -20.00 | $8.85 | |
| 1h | EGRCRIPTO | No / 45.0¢ | -20.00 | $9 | |
| 1h | 0x63e0...094ca5 | Yes / 55.0¢ | -14.00 | $7.7 | |
| 1h | UranusProbe | No / 45.0¢ | +6.00 | $2.7 | |
| 1h | EGRCRIPTO | No / 56.0¢ | +20.00 | $11.2 | |
| 1h | MACWOT2 | No / 58.0¢ | +20.00 | $11.6 | |
| 1h | 1PercentBetterT2 | No / 58.0¢ | +20.00 | $11.6 | |
| 1h | L.X | No / 56.0¢ | +20.00 | $11.2 | |
| 1h | GCNO1 | No / 59.0¢ | +131.04 | $77.3 |
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