Iran ballistic missile strike on Israel by Friday?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a ballistic missile strike on Israeli soil by June 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of a ballistic missile launched by Iranian military forces that impacts ground territory internationally recognized as part of Israel. A ballistic missile is defined as a projectile that is powered during launch and follows a ballistic trajectory under the force of gravity for the majority of its flight. Cruise missiles, rockets, drones (including loitering munitions, kamikaze drones, FPVs, and other UAVs), and artillery do not count. Ballistic missiles that are intercepted or fail to impact Israeli soil will not qualify. Bombings, cyberattacks, ground incursions, or any other indirect methods of attack will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.