
Volume
$35K
Txns
1,081
Traders
176
Fees
$0
Ends
Feb 14, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public. Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1 similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5mo | ArcticA | No / 99.9¢ | -5.01 | $5 | |
| 5mo | weqwtry3343167 | No / 99.9¢ | +5.01 | $5 | |
| 5mo | wendypeekaboo | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10.00 | $0.01 | |
| 5mo | wendypeekaboo | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10.00 | $0.01 | |
| 5mo | wendypeekaboo | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10.00 | $0.01 | |
| 5mo | wendypeekaboo | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10.00 | $0.01 | |
| 5mo | wendypeekaboo | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10.00 | $0.01 | |
| 5mo | wendypeekaboo | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10.00 | $0.01 | |
| 5mo | wendypeekaboo | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10.00 | $0.01 | |
| 5mo | wendypeekaboo | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10.00 | $0.01 | |
| 5mo | 0x152 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +30.00 | $0.03 | |
| 5mo | 0x2F6405e90f1A8B7EE9ba2951041c979Fdd119138-1761826529649 | No / 99.9¢ | +110.00 | $110 | |
| 5mo | Resonances | No / 99.9¢ | -24.89 | $24.9 | |
| 5mo | PredictionYogi | No / 99.9¢ | +24.89 | $24.9 | |
| 5mo | Po1yBot-GNlCmHvui8 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,089.00 | $1.09 | |
| 5mo | epiphany1108 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +200.00 | $0.2 | |
| 5mo | PredictionYogi | No / 99.9¢ | +1,389.00 | $1.39K | |
| 5mo | 0xb532...768577 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +100.00 | $0.1 | |
| 5mo | PredictionYogi | No / 99.9¢ | +200.00 | $200 | |
| 5mo | 9... | Yes / 0.1¢ | +200.00 | $0.2 | |
| 5mo | lisra | No / 94.9¢ | -24.89 | $23.6 | |
| 5mo | Resonances | No / 94.9¢ | +24.89 | $23.6 | |
| 5mo | lisra | No / 95.3¢ | -278.03 | $265 | |
| 5mo | Resonances | Yes / 5.1¢ | -250.22 | $12.8 | |
| 5mo | epiphany1108 | Yes / 0.9¢ | -27.81 | $0.25 |
1–25
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Yes 100%$0volume
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December…
Yes 100%$0volume
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December…
No 100%$0volume
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December…
Yes 100%$0volume
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August…
Yes 52%$0volume
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December…
Yes 100%$0volume