
Volume
$428K
Txns
7,048
Traders
2,252
Fees
$0
Ends
Dec 31, 2024
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI does NOT announce the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between January 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. This market may not resolve to "Yes" until its timeframe has expired and the completion of GPT-5 has not yet been announced. GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.
Trades
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?
No 99%$227Kvolume
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?
No 100%$236Kvolume
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?
Yes 100%$96.4Kvolume
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?
Yes 100%$45.2Kvolume
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
No 81%$123Kvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Yes 98%$1.14Mvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | river999999999 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -11.94 | $11.9 | |
| 1y | pirateshere | Yes / 99.9¢ | +11.94 | $11.9 | |
| 1y | pirateshere | Yes / 99.9¢ | +1,000.00 | $999 | |
| 1y | dizzy111 | No / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | INTJAC | Yes / 99.7¢ | -1.28 | $1.28 | |
| 1y | Nancy-Pelosi | No / 0.3¢ | -1.28 | $0 | |
| 1y | cigarettes | No / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | d1k21 | No / 0.1¢ | -1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | d1k21 | No / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Yes / 99.9¢ | +3,798.59 | $3.79K | |
| 1y | mil1AN | Yes / 99.9¢ | -7.00 | $6.99 | |
| 1y | 0xhhrc | No / 0.1¢ | +100.00 | $0.1 | |
| 1y | Wojtek | No / 0.1¢ | +2,691.59 | $2.69 | |
| 1y | unbearablelighteness | Yes / 99.9¢ | +1.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | Wojtek | No / 0.1¢ | +1.00 | $0 | |
| 1y | Zens | Yes / 99.9¢ | +5.01 | $5 | |
| 1y | Wojtek | No / 0.1¢ | +5.01 | $0.01 | |
| 1y | Wojtek | No / 0.1¢ | +111.00 | $0.11 | |
| 1y | 0xFJAFJKLDSKF7JKFDJ | Yes / 99.9¢ | +111.00 | $111 | |
| 1y | Wojtek | No / 0.5¢ | -110.00 | $0.55 | |
| 1y | guybrush1 | Yes / 99.5¢ | -110.00 | $109 | |
| 1y | guybrush1 | Yes / 99.9¢ | +110.00 | $110 | |
| 1y | Wojtek | No / 0.1¢ | +110.00 | $0.11 | |
| 1y | Wojtek | No / 0.5¢ | -1.00 | $0.01 | |
| 1y | guybrush1 | Yes / 99.5¢ | -1.00 | $0.99 |
1–25