
Volume
$2M
Txns
31,531
Traders
2,298
Fees
$0
Ends
Dec 31, 2024
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase of less than 1.22°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of less than 1.22°C for 2024 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".
Trades
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Yes 63%$353Kvolume
Will June 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
Yes 90%$4.86Kvolume
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
No 71%$412Kvolume
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026?
No 99%$1.06Kvolume
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026?
No 87%$1.33Kvolume
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Yes 80%$145Kvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | cry.eth2 | Yes / 0.1¢ | -20.00 | $0.02 | |
| 1y | cry.eth2 | Yes / 0.1¢ | -90.00 | $0.09 | |
| 1y | Timotcunhk | Yes / 0.1¢ | -1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | ArturKinal69 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +2,000.00 | $2 | |
| 1y | Rafiywjwqs | Yes / 0.1¢ | -724.45 | $0.72 | |
| 1y | VvVv | Yes / 0.1¢ | -165.55 | $0.17 | |
| 1y | Rizanhkjax | Yes / 0.1¢ | -724.45 | $0.72 | |
| 1y | Rafiywjwqs | Yes / 0.1¢ | -275.55 | $0.28 | |
| 1y | MemeTheWeak | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | Timotcunhk | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | Rizanhkjax | Yes / 0.1¢ | -275.55 | $0.28 | |
| 1y | Kiraehaqok | Yes / 0.1¢ | -724.45 | $0.72 | |
| 1y | Rafiywjwqs | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | JefChyjvjh | Yes / 0.1¢ | -724.45 | $0.72 | |
| 1y | Kiraehaqok | Yes / 0.1¢ | -275.55 | $0.28 | |
| 1y | Rizanhkjax | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | JefChyjvjh | Yes / 0.1¢ | -275.55 | $0.28 | |
| 1y | Desigmtskq | Yes / 0.1¢ | -724.45 | $0.72 | |
| 1y | Desigmtskq | Yes / 0.1¢ | -275.55 | $0.28 | |
| 1y | Kiraehaqok | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | imamnpwfvq | Yes / 0.1¢ | -724.45 | $0.72 | |
| 1y | imamnpwfvq | Yes / 0.1¢ | -275.55 | $0.28 | |
| 1y | JefChyjvjh | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | unedcjsjwx | Yes / 0.1¢ | -724.45 | $0.72 | |
| 1y | unedcjsjwx | Yes / 0.1¢ | -275.55 | $0.28 |
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