
Volume
$1M
Txns
6,187
Traders
1,012
Fees
$0
Ends
Dec 31, 2024
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase between 1.28°C (inclusive) and 1.30°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly within the stated range for 2024 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | professorx | Yes / 99.9¢ | +7,790.31 | $7.78K | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Yes / 99.9¢ | -7,740.31 | $7.73K | |
| 1y | notebookled | No / 0.1¢ | +50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Yes / 99.9¢ | -1,204.07 | $1.2K | |
| 1y | longtern | Yes / 99.9¢ | +1,204.07 | $1.2K | |
| 1y | kriszX | No / 0.1¢ | -505.62 | $0.51 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Yes / 99.9¢ | -505.62 | $505 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Yes / 99.9¢ | -50.00 | $50 | |
| 1y | notebookled | No / 0.1¢ | -50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | longtern | Yes / 99.9¢ | +500.00 | $500 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Yes / 99.9¢ | -500.00 | $500 | |
| 1y | pootytherewardfarmer | Yes / 99.9¢ | -52.00 | $51.9 | |
| 1y | notebookled | No / 0.1¢ | +50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | longtern | Yes / 99.9¢ | +102.00 | $102 | |
| 1y | botmeshe | Yes / 99.9¢ | +192.33 | $192 | |
| 1y | DoesPeterThielKnowAboutThis | Yes / 99.9¢ | -192.33 | $192 | |
| 1y | notebookled | No / 0.1¢ | -50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | DoesPeterThielKnowAboutThis | Yes / 99.9¢ | -50.00 | $50 | |
| 1y | WhoIsMakingTheseMarkets | No / 0.2¢ | -1,000.00 | $2 | |
| 1y | cigarettes | No / 0.2¢ | +1,000.00 | $2 | |
| 1y | Iamsuryo | No / 0.2¢ | +895.00 | $1.79 | |
| 1y | WhoIsMakingTheseMarkets | No / 0.2¢ | -895.00 | $1.79 | |
| 1y | cigarettes | No / 0.1¢ | +230.00 | $0.23 | |
| 1y | ImHereForTheRewards | Yes / 99.9¢ | -345.36 | $345 | |
| 1y | 0xhhrc | No / 0.1¢ | +100.00 | $0.1 |
1–25
Will June 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
Yes 92%$5.33Kvolume
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
No 96%$309Kvolume
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
No 71%$413Kvolume
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
No 98%$370Kvolume
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026?
No 86%$1.68Kvolume
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Yes 64%$353Kvolume