
Volume
$30K
Txns
171
Traders
58
Fees
$13
Ends
Jul 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic makes any Claude 4.8 model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude 4.8 refers to a product explicitly named Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.8, or any other variant that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4.7, similar to the progression from Claude 4.2 to Claude 4.3. (e.g., Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.8, 4.9, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation, such as Claude 5 or similar, will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h | tourists | Yes / 99.9¢ | -788.78 | $788 | |
| 3h | takemymoney | Yes / 99.9¢ | +788.78 | $788 | |
| 3h | HE110W0R1D | No / 0.1¢ | -50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 3h | tourists | Yes / 99.9¢ | -550.50 | $550 | |
| 3h | tourists | Yes / 99.9¢ | -500.50 | $500 | |
| 3h | OraculumNobius | Yes / 99.9¢ | +500.50 | $500 | |
| 3h | OraculumNobius | Yes / 99.9¢ | +500.50 | $500 | |
| 3h | TinyMiny | No / 0.1¢ | +9,000.00 | $9 | |
| 3h | airdropper | No / 0.2¢ | +1,000.00 | $2 | |
| 3h | XuRi888 | Yes / 99.9¢ | +13,111.00 | $13.1K | |
| 3h | planktonXD | No / 0.1¢ | +1,111.00 | $1.11 | |
| 3h | DeepDitch | No / 0.1¢ | +2,000.00 | $2 | |
| 4h | BSS37 | No / 1.2¢ | +20.00 | $0.24 | |
| 4h | stra-h11 | No / 1.0¢ | +100.00 | $1 | |
| 4h | rocky42001 | No / 1.2¢ | +16.00 | $0.19 | |
| 4h | bjprolo | No / 1.0¢ | +5.00 | $0.05 | |
| 4h | 0xee67...0e67a6 | No / 1.0¢ | +1,200.00 | $12 | |
| 4h | frostyk | No / 1.1¢ | +369.09 | $4.06 | |
| 4h | J25525 | No / 1.0¢ | +112.17 | $1.12 | |
| 4h | frozenriver | No / 1.0¢ | +5,000.00 | $50 | |
| 4h | HE110W0R1D | No / 1.0¢ | +50.00 | $0.5 | |
| 4h | gavinfunda | No / 1.0¢ | +50.00 | $0.5 | |
| 4h | gunnar242 | Yes / 99.0¢ | +6,922.26 | $6.86K | |
| 4h | gunnar242 | Yes / 98.8¢ | +100.00 | $98.8 | |
| 4h | b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | No / 1.4¢ | +20.00 | $0.28 |
1–25
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
Yes 100%$628Kvolume
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
No 88%$120Kvolume
Claude 4.8 released by June 15?
Yes 100%$50.4Kvolume
Claude 4.8 released by July 31?
Yes 100%$32.8Kvolume
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
Yes 86%$91.2Kvolume
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
No 62%$145Kvolume