
Volume
$70K
Txns
1,051
Traders
124
Fees
$0
Ends
May 31, 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 4 model is made available to the general public by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 4 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 4 (e.g. Claude 4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 3, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 3.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Trades
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Yes 100%$1.23Mvolume
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?
Yes 100%$797Kvolume
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Yes 100%$1.24Mvolume
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Yes 100%$811Kvolume
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Yes 100%$815Kvolume
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Yes 100%$352Kvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | xccyn | Yes / 99.9¢ | -13.58 | $13.6 | |
| 1y | BeN | Yes / 99.9¢ | +13.58 | $13.6 | |
| 1y | RIC25 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -191.47 | $191 | |
| 1y | BeN | Yes / 99.9¢ | +191.47 | $191 | |
| 1y | BeN | Yes / 99.9¢ | +354.71 | $354 | |
| 1y | goosemonkey | Yes / 99.9¢ | -354.71 | $354 | |
| 1y | goosemonkey | Yes / 99.9¢ | -50.00 | $50 | |
| 1y | qwertzu | No / 0.1¢ | -50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | qwertzu | No / 0.1¢ | +50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | nostradamus-markets | Yes / 99.9¢ | +877.00 | $876 | |
| 1y | BeN | Yes / 99.9¢ | -827.00 | $826 | |
| 1y | Perypery | No / 0.1¢ | -5.55 | $0.01 | |
| 1y | chatgpt.com | No / 0.1¢ | +5.55 | $0.01 | |
| 1y | Rumpelstiltskin | Yes / 99.7¢ | -282.13 | $281 | |
| 1y | MrNFT | Yes / 99.7¢ | +282.13 | $281 | |
| 1y | Dddddddddddddd | No / 0.1¢ | -1,936.30 | $1.94 | |
| 1y | chatgpt.com | No / 0.1¢ | +1,936.30 | $1.94 | |
| 1y | qwertzu | No / 0.1¢ | -50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | chatgpt.com | No / 0.1¢ | +50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | MrNFT | Yes / 99.9¢ | +995.00 | $994 | |
| 1y | MisterSandman | Yes / 99.9¢ | -995.00 | $994 | |
| 1y | BeN | Yes / 99.9¢ | +5.00 | $5 | |
| 1y | MisterSandman | Yes / 99.9¢ | -5.00 | $5 | |
| 1y | 43781095325161752 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -614.01 | $613 | |
| 1y | MrNFT | Yes / 99.9¢ | +664.01 | $663 |
1–25