
Volume
$70K
Txns
1,051
Traders
124
Fees
$0
Ends
May 31, 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 4 model is made available to the general public by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 4 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 4 (e.g. Claude 4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 3, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 3.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Trades
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Yes 100%$0volume
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December…
Yes 100%$0volume
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December…
No 100%$0volume
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
No 81%$0volume
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December…
Yes 100%$0volume
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Yes 66%$0volume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | xccyn | Yes / 99.9¢ | -13.58 | $13.6 | |
| 1y | BeN | Yes / 99.9¢ | +13.58 | $13.6 | |
| 1y | RIC25 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -191.47 | $191 | |
| 1y | BeN | Yes / 99.9¢ | +191.47 | $191 | |
| 1y | BeN | Yes / 99.9¢ | +354.71 | $354 | |
| 1y | goosemonkey | Yes / 99.9¢ | -354.71 | $354 | |
| 1y | goosemonkey | Yes / 99.9¢ | -50.00 | $50 | |
| 1y | qwertzu | No / 0.1¢ | -50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | qwertzu | No / 0.1¢ | +50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | nostradamus-markets | Yes / 99.9¢ | +877.00 | $876 | |
| 1y | BeN | Yes / 99.9¢ | -827.00 | $826 | |
| 1y | Perypery | No / 0.1¢ | -5.55 | $0.01 | |
| 1y | chatgpt.com | No / 0.1¢ | +5.55 | $0.01 | |
| 1y | Rumpelstiltskin | Yes / 99.7¢ | -282.13 | $281 | |
| 1y | MrNFT | Yes / 99.7¢ | +282.13 | $281 | |
| 1y | Dddddddddddddd | No / 0.1¢ | -1,936.30 | $1.94 | |
| 1y | chatgpt.com | No / 0.1¢ | +1,936.30 | $1.94 | |
| 1y | qwertzu | No / 0.1¢ | -50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | chatgpt.com | No / 0.1¢ | +50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | MrNFT | Yes / 99.9¢ | +995.00 | $994 | |
| 1y | MisterSandman | Yes / 99.9¢ | -995.00 | $994 | |
| 1y | BeN | Yes / 99.9¢ | +5.00 | $5 | |
| 1y | MisterSandman | Yes / 99.9¢ | -5.00 | $5 | |
| 1y | 43781095325161752 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -614.01 | $613 | |
| 1y | MrNFT | Yes / 99.9¢ | +664.01 | $663 |
1–25