
Volume
$80K
Txns
1,315
Traders
427
Fees
$0
Ends
Nov 4, 2024
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any named tropical system makes landfall in the contiguous United States as a Category 5 hurricane between October 8 and November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If any hurricane makes multiple landfalls in the contiguous United States, each landfall will be considered for the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, hurricane categories are defined by NOAA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), and a hurricane landfall is considered to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL). This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC for whether a system has made landfall in the contiguous United States at a strength of category 5, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | nameeeid | Yes / 0.9¢ | +5.00 | $0.04 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 99.1¢ | +5.00 | $4.96 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 99.1¢ | +5.00 | $4.96 | |
| 1y | foronefor | Yes / 0.9¢ | +5.00 | $0.04 | |
| 1y | darene | Yes / 0.9¢ | +5.00 | $0.04 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 99.1¢ | +5.00 | $4.96 | |
| 1y | 0x9C0cA8c7DBF6705056c0884933456210A71E2f3F-1727740650617 | Yes / 0.9¢ | +111.11 | $1 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 99.1¢ | +111.11 | $110 | |
| 1y | sem0n | Yes / 0.1¢ | -2,365.29 | $2.37 | |
| 1y | ImJustKen | No / 99.6¢ | +1,111.00 | $1.11K | |
| 1y | VOID | Yes / 0.8¢ | -621.30 | $4.97 | |
| 1y | 0x6603b63742c7e5953Db1cb06cB8991f0D99b87C4-1727743063401 | Yes / 0.4¢ | +4,705.08 | $17 | |
| 1y | Anjun | No / 99.2¢ | +222.00 | $220 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 99.1¢ | +381.31 | $378 | |
| 1y | citadella | Yes / 0.3¢ | -4.18 | $0.01 | |
| 1y | sem0n | Yes / 0.1¢ | -4,227.04 | $4.23 | |
| 1y | ImJustKen | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,111.00 | $1.11 | |
| 1y | Anjun | Yes / 0.1¢ | +116.04 | $0.12 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | +3,000.00 | $3 | |
| 1y | Anjun | Yes / 0.1¢ | +80.38 | $0.08 | |
| 1y | Sakuya | No / 99.8¢ | -20.29 | $20.2 | |
| 1y | junegur | No / 99.9¢ | +100.67 | $101 | |
| 1y | ddAnon | No / 99.7¢ | -55.00 | $54.8 | |
| 1y | citadella | Yes / 0.3¢ | -55.00 | $0.17 | |
| 1y | citadella | Yes / 0.3¢ | -100.00 | $0.3 |
1–25
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
No 99%$26.6Kvolume
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
No 98%$344Kvolume
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
No 66%$328Kvolume
Natural Disaster in 2026?
No 71%$202Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
Yes 53%$31.8Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?
No 68%$2.13Kvolume