
Volume
$238K
Txns
2,968
Traders
277
Fees
$0
Ends
Sep 30, 2025
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2025 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If 2025 September is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2025 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Trades
Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
No 100%$25.6Kvolume
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
No 99%$44.1Kvolume
Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
Yes 99%$12.1Kvolume
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
No 100%$66.9Kvolume
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?
No 99%$43.5Kvolume
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?
Yes 99%$27.3Kvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6mo | lain91 | No / 99.9¢ | -21.35 | $21.3 | |
| 6mo | cigarettes | No / 99.9¢ | +21.35 | $21.3 | |
| 6mo | cry.eth2 | Yes / 0.1¢ | -49.99 | $0.05 | |
| 6mo | 0xRocket666 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +49.99 | $0.05 | |
| 6mo | aldiJames | No / 99.0¢ | -11.00 | $10.9 | |
| 6mo | quick-turtle | No / 95.3¢ | -43.00 | $41 | |
| 6mo | aenews2 | No / 99.0¢ | +11.00 | $10.9 | |
| 6mo | JoE | No / 95.0¢ | +39.60 | $37.6 | |
| 6mo | aenews2 | No / 99.0¢ | +3.40 | $3.37 | |
| 6mo | octofii | Yes / 1.0¢ | +500.00 | $5 | |
| 6mo | aenews2 | No / 99.0¢ | +7,874.94 | $7.8K | |
| 6mo | octofii | Yes / 1.0¢ | +200.00 | $2 | |
| 6mo | daroghi | Yes / 2.0¢ | +84.94 | $1.7 | |
| 6mo | acs007 | Yes / 1.0¢ | +5,000.00 | $50 | |
| 6mo | samhain4ik | Yes / 1.0¢ | +2,090.00 | $20.9 | |
| 6mo | daroghi | Yes / 2.0¢ | +4.45 | $0.09 | |
| 6mo | daroghi | Yes / 2.0¢ | +9.95 | $0.2 | |
| 6mo | 0x4821...fb3f03 | No / 98.0¢ | +9.95 | $9.75 | |
| 6mo | 0x92c9...1164d1 | No / 98.0¢ | +4.45 | $4.36 | |
| 6mo | samhain4ik | Yes / 5.0¢ | +391.99 | $19.6 | |
| 6mo | 0x330Ca38BDD337efED19a9770829533F86f63b816-1763101243251 | Yes / 4.0¢ | +1,864.32 | $74.6 | |
| 6mo | aviato | No / 95.0¢ | -1,000.00 | $950 | |
| 6mo | samhain4ik | Yes / 2.0¢ | +1,000.00 | $20 | |
| 6mo | octofii | Yes / 6.0¢ | +266.38 | $16 | |
| 6mo | samhain4ik | Yes / 3.0¢ | +100.00 | $3 |
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